Chevron Lubricants Lanka PLC (LLUB SL) - 4Q 2023

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Earnings Reviews
22/03/2024
266
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LLUB posted a 72% YoY growth in net income, aided by 18% YoY growth in topline 4Q2023. Recovery in volumes aided topline growth, as no significant price hikes were evident. However, the increase in cost of production led to contraction in GP and EBIT margins to 31.9% (previously 36.6%) and 17.9% (previously 2.8%), respectively. Albeit the elevated costs, the decline in finance costs and tax expenses led to expansion in net income margin to 13.3% from 9.2% previously. Anticipating economic recovery from 2024E, we expect volumes to recover gradually. However, we believe the increase in VAT and deterioration in the spending power of customers will contract short-term demand. The export sector continues to grow, with export revenue contribution rising from 5% in 2021 to 9% in 2022, and we anticipate export sales would have grown by 5% YoY in the 2023 (BRS forecast) aided by the expansion in Bangladesh during the forecast period. Considering the gradual recovery market conditions, we maintain our "BUY" recommendation for LLUB, backed by gradual volume growth.
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