Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC (COMB) - 2Q 2025 - BUY

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Earnings Reviews
03/09/2025
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📈 Growth Momentum and Quality Delivering Superior ROEs: BUY 💰 Earnings jump: PATMI LKR 16.0bn (+101% YoY), EPS LKR 9.80, supported by NII growth (+12% YoY to LKR 34.6bn) and a 74% YoY drop in impairments. 🌍 Loan growth fueled by foreign currency liquidity: Gross loans LKR 205bn in 1H 2025 (+14% YTD), with 2025 growth forecast at ~20%. 📊 NIMs resilient: NIM at 4.6% in 2Q 2025; expected to hold ~4.5% through prudent asset liability management. 🛡️ Asset quality & efficiency: Stage 3 ratio 2.3%, provision cover 67%, cost-to-income <30% — best in industry. 📈 Valuation & BUY call: Forward TP LKR 248 (voting) / LKR 206 (non-voting) by end-2026E, implying upside of 28.8% / 24.1%. ROEs remain attractive at ~18%. ⚠️ Risks: Credit slowdown, policy uncertainty, monetary tightening, geopolitical tensions.
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