Rebuilding Sri Lanka: The 2026E Selective Equity Opportunity

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Strategy Reports
31/12/2025
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🎯 Strategy – Selective Overweight We favor selective overweight exposure to reconstruction and consumptionlinked sectors. While near term upside is modest, medium term returns remain intact as earnings and valuations normalise. 🌪️ From Shock to Recovery Cyclone Ditwah is expected to pressure earnings through 1H 2026E. A multilateral backed reconstruction phase should begin support activity from 2H 2026E, driving a sector led recovery through 2027E. ⚖️ Supportive Backdrop Stable interest rates, tax-exempt capital gains, and sustainable liquidity continue to support equities. 📊 Earnings & Valuation • Earnings: +10% in 2026E (LKR 765bn), +14% in 2027E (LKR 872bn) • ASPI targets: 23,500 (2026E) | 27,000 (2027E) 🧭 BRS Recommended Portfolio 🏗️ Construction & Related: AEL, ACL, SIRA, CIND, TKYO 🛒 Consumption: HHL, CIC, DIST 🏦 Financials: COMB, HNB(X), COCR 🏭 HAYC | 🚕 PKME | 💰 LLUB ⚠️ Risks: Fiscal slippages | Funding gaps | Inflation | Monetary tightening
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