Rebuilding Sri Lanka: The 2026E Selective Equity Opportunity

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Strategy Reports
31/12/2025
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🎯 Strategy – Selective Overweight We favor selective overweight exposure to reconstruction and consumptionlinked sectors. While near term upside is modest, medium term returns remain intact as earnings and valuations normalise. πŸŒͺ️ From Shock to Recovery Cyclone Ditwah is expected to pressure earnings through 1H 2026E. A multilateral backed reconstruction phase should begin support activity from 2H 2026E, driving a sector led recovery through 2027E. βš–οΈ Supportive Backdrop Stable interest rates, tax-exempt capital gains, and sustainable liquidity continue to support equities. πŸ“Š Earnings & Valuation β€’ Earnings: +10% in 2026E (LKR 765bn), +14% in 2027E (LKR 872bn) β€’ ASPI targets: 23,500 (2026E) | 27,000 (2027E) 🧭 BRS Recommended Portfolio πŸ—οΈ Construction & Related: AEL, ACL, SIRA, CIND, TKYO πŸ›’ Consumption: HHL, CIC, DIST 🏦 Financials: COMB, HNB(X), COCR 🏭 HAYC | πŸš• PKME | πŸ’° LLUB ⚠️ Risks: Fiscal slippages | Funding gaps | Inflation | Monetary tightening
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