From Conflict to Confidence - BRS Mid Year Equity Strategy July 2026

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Strategy Reports
06/07/2026
809
2
🎯 Strategy – Selective Overweight We maintain a Selective Overweight stance. While 2H2026E remains challenging amid higher interest rates and cost pressures, we expect a stronger 2027E as inflation eases and monetary policy turns supportive. 🌍 Geopolitics & Inflation Easing US–Iran tensions, lower oil prices and improving supply chains are expected to reduce imported inflation, paving the way for policy easing from 1H2027E. 📊 Earnings & Valuation • 2026E earnings: +4% (LKR 733bn) • 2027E earnings: +13% (LKR 833bn) • 2026E ASPI target: 25,250 (13.8% upside), based on forward 2027E earnings 🧭 Top Picks 🏦 Financials: COMB (N&X), HNB (N&X), COCR, HASU 🛒 Consumer: HHL, SUN, CIC, CIC(X), DIST 🏗️ Infrastructure: AEL, ACL, TKYO, TKYO(X) 🏭 HAYC, DIPD | ⚡ VLL (N&X) | 🚕 PKME | 💰 LLUB ⚠️ Key Risks: Geopolitical re-escalation | Persistent inflation | Higher-for-longer rates | Delayed earnings recovery
Discussion (2)
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User 93145 - 2 weeks ago
summary says 2026E target as 25250 whereas in page 7 it says for 2027. This is a glaring omission as saw some in X saying to accumulate stocks now as can gain hefty sum in next 5m
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SRL Staff - 2 weeks ago
Dear User, Thank you for your comment and for highlighting this point. Our ASPI target is based on 12-month forward earnings, as we believe the market generally prices in future earnings rather than current-year earnings. Accordingly, our end-2026 ASPI target is derived using our 2027 earnings forecasts, as we believe a significant portion of 2026 earnings expectations is already reflected in market prices given that we are now halfway through the year. The valuation table on Page 7 serves a different purpose. It presents fair values calculated after each quarter using the prevailing trailing/rolling earnings at that point in time and is not intended to represent the timeline of our year-end ASPI target. We appreciate that this distinction could have been made clearer, and we apologise for any confusion caused. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out to your investment advisor. We will also be hosting a webinar on our strategy report on 13 July, where we will discuss our outlook in detail and address participants' questions. We would be delighted to have you join us.